IT IS NOT ABOUT DANGOTE. IT IS ABOUT NIGERIA’S INDUSTRIAL FUTURE

IT IS NOT ABOUT DANGOTE. IT IS ABOUT NIGERIA’S INDUSTRIAL FUTURE

By Mohammed Kari (Wazirin Bauchi)

BAUCHI -  For weeks I watched from the sidelines as public debate raged over the Dangote refinery and the licensing of fuel importers. 
 

Each day brought fresh reports of vessels berthing with imported petrol, fertilizer and other finished goods. It forced me to ask a basic question: “What exactly are we still producing for ourselves as a country?” Mohammed Kari said.
  

“When a Nigerian businessman has put in nearly $20 billion to fix a problem government could not fix for 30 years, why are we still arguing to keep an import-driven system alive?” he added. 
 
According to Kari, the conversation is not about one man or one company. “This is not really about Dangote. This is about Nigeria. Do we want to remain a nation that buys what others make, or do we want to become a nation that makes what we buy?” he stated. 
 

A Country At A Turning Point: 


Kari pointed to Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna as proof of the policy failure.  
“For decades we poured billions into those refineries. Reports say over ₦11.35 trillion went into repairs and turnaround maintenance, yet output remained poor,” he said.  


He did the math in dollar terms. “At about ₦500 to $1, the rate when this administration came in 2023, that ₦11.35 trillion is roughly $22.7 billion. That is more than the cost of building the Dangote refinery from scratch,” Kari noted.  



“In effect, we spent enough to build a brand new world-class refinery trying to patch old ones,” he added.  


The outcome, he said, was absurd. “Nigeria became one of the biggest crude producers on earth and yet we kept importing the petrol made from our own crude. We sold raw oil, paid others to refine it, then used scarce dollars to buy it back,” he said.  



It was in that context, Kari argued, that the Dangote refinery came on stream.   From Importers To Producers: - The significance of Aliko Dangote, according to Kari, is not just wealth. “His importance is in choosing to produce instead of only importing. Look at cement, sugar, fertilizer. Those investments cut imports, created jobs, built factories, and even opened export channels,” he said.  
“Value that used to leave Nigeria now stays here and circulates in our economy,” he added.  



Why The Refinery Matters For The Economy: - With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the Dangote refinery is the biggest single bet on Nigerian manufacturing to date.  
“For years, other countries made money refining our crude. This refinery is an attempt to keep more of that value chain at home,” Kari said. 



“This is bigger than fuel. It is about jobs. It is about skills. It is about industrial capacity. It is about economic independence,” he stated.  


Saving Dollars By Refining At Home: - Kari explained how local refining protects foreign exchange. “For too long we exported crude and then spent dollars importing refined products from that same crude,” he said.  


“When we refine locally, the money stays. It pays Nigerian workers, Nigerian suppliers, Nigerian taxes. It also reduces pressure on our reserves because fewer dollars leave the country,” he added.

  
The Case For Making What We Use: - He described the refinery as a textbook case of import substitution.  
“Producing here what we used to import does three things: it creates jobs, it builds skills, and it grows tax revenue,” Kari said.  


“Once local demand is met, the excess can be exported and bring dollars in. That is how countries develop. They produce, add value, and sell to the world,” he noted.  


On Competition And Market Dominance: - Some critics warn that Dangote’s size could hurt competition. Kari disagrees with the framing.  “Competition is good. But we must ask: what kind of competition do we want?” he asked. 
 

“There is competition that builds factories and refineries. And there is competition that only brings in goods made elsewhere. One grows capacity. The other only moves boxes,” he said.  

“If we are worried about dominance, the answer is to support more Nigerians to produce, not to encourage more imports,” he added.  

Patriotism And National Interest: - Kari said no country industrialized by choosing imports over local production when it had the capacity to produce.  “If foreign players fight Nigerian self-sufficiency, we understand. They benefit when we remain a market. The bigger question is why some Nigerians defend a model that has kept us dependent for decades,” he said.  



He called on government to pick a side. “Every industrial nation backed its producers with policy, infrastructure and stability. If a Nigerian invests $20 billion to solve a national problem, the least we can do is create policies that reward production,” Kari stated.

  
“The question is not how to fight Dangote. The question is how more Nigerians can compete by building, not by importing,” he added.  



What Government Must Do: - Kari listed steps to make production more attractive than importation. “We need a clear industrial policy. We need incentives for manufacturers. We need stable rules and predictable regulation,” he said.  


“We also need power, roads, ports and logistics that work. And we need more refineries, more factories, more processing plants,” he stated. 

 
“The way out of dependence is production. Not more dependence,” he said. 


Consumers Hold The Power: He said one group is missing from the debate: consumers. “Businesses organize. Importers organize. But consumers, who have the biggest power, often stay quiet,” Kari observed.  


“Every purchase is a vote. Every naira decides which businesses grow and which economic model wins,” he said. 
 
The issue, he argued, is bigger than one personality.  “This is not about supporting Dangote as a person. It is about supporting industrialization, production, and national transformation,” he stated.  


The Choice Before Us: Kari concluded that Nigeria’s ability to industrialize has already been proven.  “A Nigerian has invested about $20 billion to show that we can. Whatever happens, his products will find markets across Africa and beyond. The real risk is to Nigeria if we choose wrongly,” he said.  


He urged organized action. “Consumers are powerful. When we choose deliberately, we shape markets and policy. This does not require protests. It starts with informed choices: buy from companies that manufacture here, create jobs here, and keep value here,” Kari said.  


“Unions, students, professional bodies, and community groups can help spread that message and build a culture that rewards production over dependency,” he added.  



“The choice is clear. Do we keep importing prosperity, or do we start producing it for ourselves? History will record which path we took,” he concluded.